Player breakdown
Aaron Murray
Georgia · 2014 Draft Class
6-0207 lbs5th round, 163rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
25%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Georgia | SEC | 10 | 188 | 304 | 2,851 | 24 | 6 | 163 | 4 | 28 |
| 2011 | Georgia | SEC | 12 | 218 | 371 | 2,861 | 33 | 12 | 116 | 2 | 35 |
| 2012 | Georgia | SEC | 12 | 249 | 386 | 3,893 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| 2013 | Georgia | SEC | 11 | 225 | 347 | 3,075 | 26 | 9 | 186 | 7 | 33 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
25%
ML model output
Context Prob
25%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.4) — getting better faster each year+0.345
12,680 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Best-season yards rank: top 25% in class — strong+0.200
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.82 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
281.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.333