Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Aaron Murray
Aaron Murray

Player breakdown

Aaron Murray

Georgia · 2014 Draft Class

6-0207 lbs5th round, 163rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

25%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2010GeorgiaSEC101883042,851246163428
2011GeorgiaSEC122183712,8613312116235
2012GeorgiaSEC122493863,89336100036
2013GeorgiaSEC112253473,075269186733

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

25%

ML model output

Context Prob

25%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.4) — getting better faster each year+0.345
12,680 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Best-season yards rank: top 25% in class — strong+0.200

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.82 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
281.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.333

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)