Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Aidan O'Connell
Aidan O'Connell

Player breakdown

Aidan O'Connell

Purdue · 2023 Draft Class

6-3213 lbs4th round, 135th overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~28
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

14%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2023LVR11102133432,21812711113
2024LVR971542431,612843019
2025LVR10102210200700
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019PurdueBig Ten41031641,10184008
2020PurdueBig Ten38813691672007
2021PurdueBig Ten102893933,1782380023
2022PurdueBig Ten03204993,49022130022

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

14%

ML model output

Context Prob

14%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.275
8,685 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Best-season yards rank: top 29% in class — strong+0.214

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+2.2) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.338

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)