Player breakdown
Aidan O'Connell
Purdue · 2023 Draft Class
6-3213 lbs4th round, 135th overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~28
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
14%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | LVR | 11 | 10 | 213 | 343 | 2,218 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 13 |
| 2024 | LVR | 9 | 7 | 154 | 243 | 1,612 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 9 |
| 2025 | LVR | 1 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Purdue | Big Ten | 4 | 103 | 164 | 1,101 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2020 | Purdue | Big Ten | 3 | 88 | 136 | 916 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2021 | Purdue | Big Ten | 10 | 289 | 393 | 3,178 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| 2022 | Purdue | Big Ten | 0 | 320 | 499 | 3,490 | 22 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
14%
ML model output
Context Prob
14%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.275
8,685 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Best-season yards rank: top 29% in class — strong+0.214
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+2.2) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.338