Predicting the Pros
Predictions/A.J. McCarron
A.J. McCarron

Player breakdown

A.J. McCarron

Alabama · 2014 Draft Class

6-3220 lbs5th round, 164th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

5%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2015CIN7379119854623106
2017CIN307146600000
2018OAK2013800-200
2019HOU212137225013911
2020HOU20112000000
2023CIN20451900000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2010AlabamaSEC3244233830003
2011AlabamaSEC91962942,4001650016
2012AlabamaSEC122113142,9333030030
2013AlabamaSEC112073062,67626521026

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

5%

ML model output

Context Prob

5%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.34s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
8,347 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
111 yards per TD — big-play production pattern+0.171

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.85 — elite athletic ceiling-0.546
Improvement accelerating (+7.7) — getting better faster each year-0.397
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.359

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)