Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Alex McGough
Alex McGough

Player breakdown

Alex McGough

Florida International · 2018 Draft Class

7th round, 220th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

12%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2014Florida InternationalConference USA101382741,680141092418
2015Florida InternationalConference USA02694202,72221895324
2016Florida InternationalConference USA61672861,8911311117417
2017Florida InternationalConference USA122313542,791178214522

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

12%

ML model output

Context Prob

12%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

9,084 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.268
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.260
Improvement accelerating (+0.7) — getting better faster each year+0.228

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.546
324.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.325
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)