Alex Smith

Utah · 2005 Draft Class

6-4217 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~42

Medium25+ Total TD

Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --

Model confidence

Success Probability

53%

Year	Team	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Total TD
2005	SFO	9	7	84	165	875	1	11	103	0	1
2006	SFO	16	16	257	442	2,890	16	16	147	2	18
2007	SFO	7	7	94	193	914	2	4	89	0	2
2009	SFO	11	10	225	372	2,350	18	12	51	0	18
2010	SFO	11	10	204	342	2,370	14	10	60	0	14
2011	SFO	16	16	273	445	3,144	17	5	179	2	19
2012	SFO	10	9	153	218	1,737	13	5	132	0	13
2013	KAN	15	15	308	508	3,313	23	7	431	1	24
2014	KAN	15	15	303	464	3,265	18	6	254	1	19
2015	KAN	16	16	307	470	3,486	20	7	498	2	22
2016	KAN	15	15	328	489	3,502	15	8	134	5	20
2017	KAN	15	15	341	505	4,042	26	5	355	1	27
2018	WAS	10	10	205	328	2,180	10	5	168	1	11
2020	WAS	8	6	168	252	1,582	6	8	3	0	6

Season	Team	Conf	G	Cmp	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Total TD
2003	Utah	Big 12	4	74	120	822	6	0	174	1	7
2004	Utah	Big 12	11	185	280	2,624	28	4	563	10	38

Model readout

XGBoost Prob

53%

ML model output

Context Prob

53%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Physical upside: 0.90 — elite athletic ceiling+0.362

Strong ascending production slope (+1802 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337

3.96s short shuttle — elite lateral quickness+0.277

Improvement accelerating (+2.2) — getting better faster each year-0.397

229.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.334

Height-adjusted speed: 4.46s — good speed for frame-0.310