Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Andrew Luck
Andrew Luck

Player breakdown

Andrew Luck

Stanford · 2012 Draft Class

6-4234 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~36
HighUnitas x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

70%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012IND16163396274,3742318255528
2013IND16163435703,822239377427
2014IND16163806164,7614016273343
2015IND771622931,8811512196015
2016IND15153465454,2403113341233
2018IND16164306394,5933915148039
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2009StanfordACC91622882,575134354215
2010StanfordACC112453493,051287438331
2011StanfordACC122613733,170359153237

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

51%

ML model output

Context Prob

51%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.98 — elite athletic ceiling+0.365
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.351
4.28s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

274.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319
Height-adjusted speed: 4.35s — elite speed for frame-0.297

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)