Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Andrew Walter
Andrew Walter

Player breakdown

Andrew Walter

Arizona St. · 2005 Draft Class

6-6233 lbs3rd round, 69th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~44
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

51%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006OAK1281472761,6773133003
2007OAK10583800000
2008OAK212249204031900
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003Arizona StateBig 12122394293,00325129025
2004Arizona StateBig 1282444263,1503090030

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

51%

ML model output

Context Prob

51%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.91 — elite athletic ceiling+0.365
Improvement accelerating (+0.1) — getting better faster each year+0.351
6,153 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

307.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
Height-adjusted speed: 4.49s — good speed for frame-0.297
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output-0.266

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)