Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson

Player breakdown

Anthony Richardson

Florida · 2023 Draft Class

6-4244 lbs1st round, 4th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~24
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

44%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2023IND4450845773113647
2024IND11111262641,814812499614
2025IND2012900-100
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2020FloridaSEC01227116101
2021FloridaSEC438645296540139
2022FloridaSEC01763272,549179654926

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

44%

ML model output

Context Prob

44%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 1.06 — elite athletic ceiling+0.362
Strong ascending production slope (+1261 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
3,105 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+93.4) — getting better faster each year-0.397
776.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.322
Height-adjusted speed: 4.20s — elite speed for frame-0.314

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)