Player breakdown
Arch Manning
Texas · 2027 Draft Class
Undrafted / UpcomingAge: ~19
Medium
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $5.4M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
40%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas | SEC | 13 | 228 | 363 | 2,806 | 11 | 1 | 414 | 5 | 16 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
40%
ML model output
Context Prob
40%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
2,806 career receiving yards — strong volume+0.281
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.261
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+2806.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
215.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.333