Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Bailey Zappe
Bailey Zappe

Player breakdown

Bailey Zappe

Western Kentucky · 2022 Draft Class

6-1215 lbs4th round, 137th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

64%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2022NWE42659278153005
2023NWE1061272121,272698317
2024CLE11163117012201
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018Houston ChristianSouthland102524362,8222313179124
2019Houston ChristianSouthland113575603,81135150035
2020Houston ChristianSouthland41412151,83315114015
2021Western KentuckyConference USA134426395,545561122359

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

61%

ML model output

Context Prob

61%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.40s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
5,545 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.84 — elite athletic ceiling-0.568
426.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.81s — below average speed for frame-0.307

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)