Player breakdown
Bailey Zappe
Western Kentucky · 2022 Draft Class
6-1215 lbs4th round, 137th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
64%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | NWE | 4 | 2 | 65 | 92 | 781 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2023 | NWE | 10 | 6 | 127 | 212 | 1,272 | 6 | 9 | 83 | 1 | 7 |
| 2024 | CLE | 1 | 1 | 16 | 31 | 170 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Houston Christian | Southland | 10 | 252 | 436 | 2,822 | 23 | 13 | 179 | 1 | 24 |
| 2019 | Houston Christian | Southland | 11 | 357 | 560 | 3,811 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 35 |
| 2020 | Houston Christian | Southland | 4 | 141 | 215 | 1,833 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 2021 | Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 13 | 442 | 639 | 5,545 | 56 | 11 | 22 | 3 | 59 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
61%
ML model output
Context Prob
61%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
4.40s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
5,545 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.84 — elite athletic ceiling-0.568
426.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.81s — below average speed for frame-0.307