Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield

Player breakdown

Baker Mayfield

Oklahoma · 2018 Draft Class

6-1215 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~31
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1All-American x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 2398NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

92%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018CLE14133104863,7252714131027
2019CLE16163175343,8272221141325
2020CLE16163054863,563268165127
2021CLE14142534183,0101713134118
2022LAR5482129850423704
2023TAM17173645664,0442810163129
2024TAM17174075704,5004116378344
2025TAM17173435433,6932611382127
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2013Texas TechBig 1262183402,315129190315
2015OklahomaSEC02433543,389355420742
2016OklahomaSEC122353303,669388143644
2017OklahomaSEC132623694,340415310546

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

60%

ML model output

Context Prob

60%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.28s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
11,398 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.85 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
455.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.77s — below average speed for frame-0.289

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)