Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ben DiNucci
Ben DiNucci

Player breakdown

Ben DiNucci

James Madison · 2020 Draft Class

7th round, 231st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~29
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

49%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2020DAL312343219002200
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017PittsburghACC6881581,0915512616
2018James MadisonSun Belt122113092,2751612433925
2019James MadisonSun Belt132273192,982255498631

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

49%

ML model output

Context Prob

49%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+945 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.298
5,257 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.281
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.551
Improvement accelerating (+1.7) — getting better faster each year-0.397
210.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.348

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)