Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Blaine Gabbert
Blaine Gabbert

Player breakdown

Blaine Gabbert

Missouri · 2011 Draft Class

6-4234 lbs1st round, 10th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~36
HighMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011JAX15142104132,214121198012
2012JAX10101622781,662965609
2013JAX334286481173201
2014SFO10373810501
2015SFO881782822,031107185111
2016SFO65911609255617327
2017ARI55951711,086668206
2018TEN836110162644004
2020TAM40916143201602
2021TAM607116700-700
2022TAM10682910001
2023KAN211835185034500
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2008MissouriSEC051343002200
2009MissouriSEC122624453,593249204327
2010MissouriSEC112604182,752157239419

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

58%

ML model output

Context Prob

58%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.97 — elite athletic ceiling+0.370
Strong ascending production slope (+1354 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
6,388 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+82.6) — getting better faster each year-0.390
277.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.339
Height-adjusted speed: 4.37s — elite speed for frame-0.314

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)