Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Blake Bortles
Blake Bortles

Player breakdown

Blake Bortles

Central Florida · 2014 Draft Class

6-5232 lbs1st round, 3rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~34
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

44%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2014JAX14132804752,9081117419011
2015JAX16163556064,4283518310237
2016JAX16163686253,9052316359326
2017JAX16163155233,6872113322223
2018JAX13122434032,7181311365114
2019LAR3012300-900
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011UCFBig 1247511095863417
2012UCFBig 12132513993,059257285833
2013UCFBig 12102393513,280227179527

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

44%

ML model output

Context Prob

44%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.454
Strong ascending production slope (+1161 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
4.21s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+2.4) — getting better faster each year-0.397
270.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.315

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)