Predicting the Pros
Bo Nix

Player breakdown

Bo Nix

Oregon · 2024 Draft Class

6-2214 lbs1st round, 12th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~26
EliteAll-Conference x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

85%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2024DEN17173765673,7752912430433
2025DEN17173886123,9312511356530
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2022OregonBig Ten02713793,3892765041441
2023OregonBig Ten143364354,145403228646

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

77%

ML model output

Context Prob

77%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.345
7,534 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
538.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.263

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)