Player breakdown
Bo Nix
Oregon · 2024 Draft Class
6-2214 lbs1st round, 12th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~26
EliteAll-Conference x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
85%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DEN | 17 | 17 | 376 | 567 | 3,775 | 29 | 12 | 430 | 4 | 33 |
| 2025 | DEN | 17 | 17 | 388 | 612 | 3,931 | 25 | 11 | 356 | 5 | 30 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Oregon | Big Ten | 0 | 271 | 379 | 3,389 | 27 | 6 | 504 | 14 | 41 |
| 2023 | Oregon | Big Ten | 14 | 336 | 435 | 4,145 | 40 | 3 | 228 | 6 | 46 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
77%
ML model output
Context Prob
77%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.345
7,534 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
538.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.263