Player breakdown
Brad Smith
Missouri · 2006 Draft Class
5-10170 lbs4th round, 103rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~42
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
28%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | NYJ | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | BUF | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 116 | 1 | 1 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Missouri | SEC | 12 | 210 | 334 | 1,872 | 11 | 0 | 1,339 | 15 | 26 |
| 2004 | Missouri | SEC | 10 | 191 | 369 | 2,185 | 17 | 11 | 553 | 4 | 21 |
| 2005 | Missouri | SEC | 9 | 216 | 362 | 2,022 | 12 | 8 | 1,151 | 13 | 25 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
28%
ML model output
Context Prob
28%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.344
6,079 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.265
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.51 — average athletic ceiling-0.546
196.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.327
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319