Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Brandon Doughty
Brandon Doughty

Player breakdown

Brandon Doughty

Western Kentucky · 2016 Draft Class

6-3213 lbs7th round, 223rd overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~34
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

46%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011Western KentuckyConference USA0132210601000
2012Western KentuckyConference USA013700000
2013Western KentuckyConference USA82463742,85714140014
2014Western KentuckyConference USA123445104,34444100044
2015Western KentuckyConference USA03564964,5944570045

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

46%

ML model output

Context Prob

46%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1122 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4.52s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
11,908 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.78 — strong athletic ceiling-0.562
Improvement accelerating (+42.3) — getting better faster each year-0.390
5 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.353

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)