Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Brandon Weeden
Brandon Weeden

Player breakdown

Brandon Weeden

Oklahoma St. · 2012 Draft Class

6-3221 lbs1st round, 22nd overallAge at Draft: 28Age: ~42
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

27%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012CLE15152975173,3851417111014
2013CLE851412671,731994409
2014DAL51244130332-103
2015HOU212642305301714
2018HOU1000000-100
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2008Oklahoma StateBig 12013800200
2009Oklahoma StateBig 1221524248411804
2010Oklahoma StateBig 12123174704,03732130032
2011Oklahoma StateBig 12113795224,32834120034

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

27%

ML model output

Context Prob

27%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1440 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
8,621 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.245

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.86 — elite athletic ceiling-0.562
Improvement accelerating (+540.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.340

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)