Player breakdown
Brock Osweiler
Arizona St. · 2012 Draft Class
6-7242 lbs2nd round, 57th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
31%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | DEN | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | -13 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | DEN | 4 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2014 | DEN | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | DEN | 8 | 7 | 170 | 275 | 1,967 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 11 |
| 2016 | HOU | 15 | 14 | 301 | 510 | 2,957 | 15 | 16 | 131 | 2 | 17 |
| 2017 | DEN | 6 | 4 | 96 | 172 | 1,088 | 5 | 5 | 64 | 1 | 6 |
| 2018 | MIA | 7 | 5 | 113 | 178 | 1,247 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 6 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Arizona State | Big 12 | 2 | 24 | 55 | 249 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| 2010 | Arizona State | Big 12 | 2 | 62 | 109 | 797 | 5 | 0 | 124 | 1 | 6 |
| 2011 | Arizona State | Big 12 | 12 | 296 | 469 | 3,641 | 24 | 12 | 128 | 3 | 27 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
31%
ML model output
Context Prob
31%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.95 — elite athletic ceiling+0.370
Strong ascending production slope (+1696 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
4,687 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+13.6) — getting better faster each year-0.390
292.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.339
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.315