Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy

Player breakdown

Brock Purdy

Iowa St. · 2022 Draft Class

6-1212 lbs7th round, 262nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
Low25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

10%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2022SFO951141701,37413413114
2023SFO16163084444,2803111144233
2024SFO15153004553,8642012323525
2025SFO991972842,1672010147323
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018Iowa StateBig 1271281931,935165262319
2019Iowa StateBig 12122954453,760279265835
2020Iowa StateBig 12102433652,750199382524
2021Iowa StateBig 1292693682,984187224119

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

10%

ML model output

Context Prob

10%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.45s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
11,429 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Improvement accelerating (+0.9) — getting better faster each year+0.214

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.84 — elite athletic ceiling-0.566
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.347
300.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.346

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)