Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Bruce Gradkowski
Bruce Gradkowski

Player breakdown

Bruce Gradkowski

Toledo · 2006 Draft Class

6-1217 lbs6th round, 194th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

29%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006TAM13111773281,6619916109
2007TAM401324130012000
2008CLE217212603200
2009OAK74821501,0076310806
2010OAK64831571,059574105
2011CIN2081810911101
2012CIN205116500-200
2014PIT1000000-200
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003ToledoMid-American31041361,042705518
2004ToledoMid-American112743873,475278196835
2005ToledoMid-American91893022,1712410280428

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

29%

ML model output

Context Prob

29%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.92 — elite athletic ceiling+0.364
4.16s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
6,688 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+2.3) — getting better faster each year-0.397
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.367
290.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)