Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Bryce Petty
Bryce Petty

Player breakdown

Bryce Petty

Baylor · 2015 Draft Class

6-3230 lbs4th round, 103rd overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~35
HighMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

55%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2016NYJ6475133809371903
2017NYJ4355112544135501
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011BaylorBig 1203443001500
2012BaylorBig 12271097101312
2013BaylorBig 12122203563,8443021921141
2014BaylorBig 12112343773,305266137531

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

55%

ML model output

Context Prob

55%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.408
Strong ascending production slope (+1087 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4.13s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+88.4) — getting better faster each year-0.397
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.340
291.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.338

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)