Player breakdown
Bryce Young
Alabama · 2023 Draft Class
5-10204 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1All-American x1All-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 5Heisman votes: 2311NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | CAR | 16 | 16 | 315 | 527 | 2,877 | 11 | 10 | 253 | 0 | 11 |
| 2024 | CAR | 14 | 12 | 234 | 384 | 2,403 | 15 | 9 | 249 | 6 | 21 |
| 2025 | CAR | 16 | 16 | 304 | 478 | 3,011 | 23 | 11 | 216 | 2 | 25 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Alabama | SEC | 1 | 13 | 22 | 156 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2021 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 314 | 462 | 4,322 | 43 | 4 | 31 | 3 | 46 |
| 2022 | Alabama | SEC | 0 | 230 | 359 | 3,007 | 27 | 5 | 195 | 4 | 31 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
85%
ML model output
Context Prob
85%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1425 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
7,485 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.270
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.56 — average athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+26.7) — getting better faster each year-0.390
534.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345