Player breakdown
Caleb Williams
USC · 2024 Draft Class
6-1214 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~24
EliteHeisman x1All-American x1All-Conference x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 2031NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | CHI | 17 | 17 | 351 | 562 | 3,541 | 20 | 6 | 489 | 0 | 20 |
| 2025 | CHI | 17 | 17 | 330 | 568 | 3,942 | 27 | 7 | 388 | 3 | 30 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Oklahoma | SEC | 8 | 115 | 184 | 1,670 | 18 | 4 | 408 | 6 | 24 |
| 2022 | USC | Big Ten | 0 | 296 | 448 | 4,075 | 37 | 4 | 372 | 10 | 47 |
| 2023 | USC | Big Ten | 12 | 266 | 388 | 3,633 | 30 | 5 | 136 | 11 | 41 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
74%
ML model output
Context Prob
74%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+981 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.311
7,708 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+1.4) — getting better faster each year-0.390
642.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345