Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Cam Newton
Cam Newton

Player breakdown

Cam Newton

Auburn · 2011 Draft Class

6-5248 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~37
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1All-American x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 2263NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

92%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011CAR16163105174,05121177061435
2012CAR16162804853,8691912741827
2013CAR16162924733,3792413585630
2014CAR14142624483,1271812539523
2015CAR16162964953,83735106361045
2016CAR15142705103,5091914359524
2017CAR16162914923,3022216754628
2018CAR14143204713,3952413488428
2019CAR22508957201-200
2020NWE15152423682,6578105921220
2021CAR85691266844523059
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2007FloridaSEC3510400010333
2008FloridaSEC11214001011
2010AuburnSEC131652462,5892861,4092048

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

73%

ML model output

Context Prob

73%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 1.03 — elite athletic ceiling+0.367
Strong ascending production slope (+1274 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4.18s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+63.7) — getting better faster each year-0.397
199.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341
Height-adjusted speed: 4.26s — elite speed for frame-0.315

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)