Player breakdown
Cam Ward
Miami (FL) · 2025 Draft Class
6-2219 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~24
EliteDavey O'Brien x1Manning x1All-American x1All-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $4.7M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
85%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | TEN | 17 | 17 | 323 | 540 | 3,169 | 15 | 7 | 159 | 2 | 17 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Incarnate Word | Southland | 13 | 384 | 590 | 4,648 | 47 | 10 | 61 | 1 | 48 |
| 2022 | Washington State | Pac-12 | 0 | 298 | 465 | 3,094 | 23 | 8 | 62 | 5 | 28 |
| 2023 | Washington State | Pac-12 | 12 | 323 | 485 | 3,735 | 25 | 7 | 144 | 8 | 33 |
| 2024 | Miami | ACC | 12 | 293 | 435 | 4,123 | 36 | 7 | 196 | 4 | 40 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
82%
ML model output
Context Prob
82%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.345
4,123 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.60 — strong athletic ceiling-0.568
343.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Declining production trend (-175) — peaked before final season-0.219