Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Cardale Jones
Cardale Jones

Player breakdown

Cardale Jones

Ohio St. · 2016 Draft Class

6-5253 lbs4th round, 139th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

11%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2016BUF106119601-100
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2013Ohio StateBig Ten11230012811
2014Ohio StateBig Ten222343755021505
2015Ohio StateBig Ten01101761,46085193210

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

11%

ML model output

Context Prob

11%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.97 — elite athletic ceiling+0.355
1,838 career receiving yards — modest volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+485.7) — getting better faster each year-0.397
612.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.322
Height-adjusted speed: 4.50s — below average speed for frame-0.295

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)