Carson Palmer

USC · 2003 Draft Class

6-5232 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~46

EliteHeisman x1Unitas x1All-American x125+ Total TD

Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 1328NIL Contract Value: --

Model confidence

Success Probability

92%

Year	Team	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Total TD
2004	CIN	13	13	263	432	2,897	18	18	47	1	19
2005	CIN	16	16	345	509	3,836	32	12	41	1	33
2006	CIN	16	16	324	520	4,035	28	13	37	0	28
2007	CIN	16	16	373	575	4,131	26	20	10	0	26
2008	CIN	4	4	75	129	731	3	4	38	0	3
2009	CIN	16	16	282	466	3,094	21	13	93	3	24
2010	CIN	16	16	362	586	3,970	26	20	50	0	26
2011	OAK	10	9	199	328	2,753	13	16	20	1	14
2012	OAK	15	15	345	565	4,018	22	14	36	1	23
2013	ARI	16	16	362	572	4,274	24	22	3	0	24
2014	ARI	6	6	141	224	1,626	11	3	25	0	11
2015	ARI	16	16	342	537	4,671	35	11	24	1	36
2016	ARI	15	15	364	597	4,233	26	14	38	0	26
2017	ARI	7	7	164	267	1,978	9	7	12	0	9

Season	Team	Conf	G	Cmp	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Total TD
2002	USC	Big Ten	1	21	31	304	1	0	21	0	1

Model readout

XGBoost Prob

64%

ML model output

Context Prob

64%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Physical upside: 0.96 — elite athletic ceiling+0.365

Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.344

304 career receiving yards — modest volume+0.273

304.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.318

Height-adjusted speed: 4.35s — elite speed for frame-0.314

Flat production across college career-0.222