Player breakdown
Chad Kelly
Mississippi · 2017 Draft Class
7th round, 253rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
43%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | DEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Clemson | ACC | 1 | 10 | 17 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Ole Miss | SEC | 0 | 277 | 425 | 3,740 | 27 | 12 | 427 | 10 | 37 |
| 2016 | Ole Miss | SEC | 9 | 205 | 328 | 2,758 | 19 | 8 | 332 | 5 | 24 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
43%
ML model output
Context Prob
43%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1350 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
6,498 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.281
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.258
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.566
Improvement accelerating (+63.5) — getting better faster each year-0.397
722.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.348