Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Chad Kelly
Chad Kelly

Player breakdown

Chad Kelly

Mississippi · 2017 Draft Class

7th round, 253rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

43%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018DEN1000000-100
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2013ClemsonACC11017580011711
2015Ole MissSEC02774253,74027124271037
2016Ole MissSEC92053282,758198332524

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

43%

ML model output

Context Prob

43%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1350 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
6,498 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.281
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.258

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.566
Improvement accelerating (+63.5) — getting better faster each year-0.397
722.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.348

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)