Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Charlie Frye
Charlie Frye

Player breakdown

Charlie Frye

Akron · 2005 Draft Class

6-4225 lbs3rd round, 67th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~45
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

37%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2005CLE75981641,002456015
2006CLE13132523932,4541017215313
2007CLE114103401100
2008SEA21122383223002
2009OAK335387581144101
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003AkronMid-American12640286001011
2004AkronMid-American92203462,6231880018

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

37%

ML model output

Context Prob

37%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.90 — elite athletic ceiling+0.362
Strong ascending production slope (+2337 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
2,909 career receiving yards — strong volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+8.2) — getting better faster each year-0.390
290.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.318
Height-adjusted speed: 4.54s — below average speed for frame-0.314

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)