Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Christian Hackenberg
Christian Hackenberg

Player breakdown

Christian Hackenberg

Penn St. · 2016 Draft Class

6-4223 lbs2nd round, 51st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~31
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

33%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2013Penn StateBig Ten112313922,95520100020
2014Penn StateBig Ten62364342,606815008
2015Penn StateBig Ten01843452,3861650016

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

33%

ML model output

Context Prob

33%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.344
Physical upside: 0.90 — elite athletic ceiling+0.340
4.33s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

467.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335
Best-season yards rank: top 57% in class — average-0.300
Height-adjusted speed: 4.53s — below average speed for frame-0.290

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)