Player breakdown
Christian Ponder
Florida St. · 2011 Draft Class
6-2229 lbs1st round, 12th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
7%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | MIN | 11 | 10 | 158 | 291 | 1,853 | 13 | 13 | 219 | 0 | 13 |
| 2012 | MIN | 16 | 16 | 300 | 483 | 2,935 | 18 | 12 | 253 | 2 | 20 |
| 2013 | MIN | 9 | 9 | 152 | 239 | 1,648 | 7 | 9 | 151 | 4 | 11 |
| 2014 | MIN | 2 | 1 | 22 | 44 | 222 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 1 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Florida State | ACC | 1 | 8 | 18 | 105 | 1 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 1 |
| 2008 | Florida State | ACC | 9 | 159 | 287 | 1,807 | 12 | 13 | 404 | 4 | 16 |
| 2009 | Florida State | ACC | 6 | 227 | 330 | 2,717 | 14 | 7 | 179 | 2 | 16 |
| 2010 | Florida State | ACC | 10 | 183 | 294 | 2,038 | 20 | 8 | 177 | 4 | 24 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
7%
ML model output
Context Prob
7%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.94 — elite athletic ceiling+0.355
4.09s short shuttle — elite lateral quickness+0.262
6,667 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+24.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.350
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.332