Predicting the Pros
Predictions/C.J. Beathard
C.J. Beathard

Player breakdown

C.J. Beathard

Iowa · 2017 Draft Class

6-2219 lbs3rd round, 104th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

7%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017SFO751232241,4304613637
2018SFO651021691,252876919
2020SFO6266104787602806
2021JAX20223300200
2022JAX407113501-400
2023JAX714053349103501
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2013IowaBig Ten2520124013822
2014IowaBig Ten33969500317403
2015IowaBig Ten02023292,570154270621
2016IowaBig Ten91632781,8741770017

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

7%

ML model output

Context Prob

7%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.265
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262
5,068 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.60 — strong athletic ceiling-0.546
Improvement accelerating (+19.7) — getting better faster each year-0.390
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.356

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)