Player breakdown
C.J. Stroud
Ohio St. · 2023 Draft Class
6-3214 lbs1st round, 2nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~24
EliteAll-Conference x225+ Total TD
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
88%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | HOU | 15 | 15 | 319 | 499 | 4,108 | 23 | 5 | 167 | 3 | 26 |
| 2024 | HOU | 17 | 17 | 336 | 532 | 3,727 | 20 | 12 | 233 | 0 | 20 |
| 2025 | HOU | 14 | 14 | 273 | 423 | 3,041 | 19 | 8 | 209 | 1 | 20 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 1 |
| 2021 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 11 | 280 | 395 | 3,862 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 38 |
| 2022 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 0 | 235 | 355 | 3,340 | 37 | 6 | 74 | 0 | 37 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
73%
ML model output
Context Prob
73%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.345
7,202 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
654.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.263