Player breakdown
Clayton Thorson
Northwestern · 2019 Draft Class
6-4222 lbs5th round, 167th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~31
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
14%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 0 | 142 | 275 | 1,465 | 7 | 7 | 374 | 5 | 12 |
| 2016 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 11 | 257 | 442 | 2,968 | 21 | 8 | 82 | 5 | 26 |
| 2017 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 10 | 258 | 426 | 2,809 | 15 | 12 | 29 | 8 | 23 |
| 2018 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 11 | 278 | 459 | 2,942 | 15 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
14%
ML model output
Context Prob
14%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
10,184 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.257
Improvement accelerating (+1.0) — getting better faster each year+0.208
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.61 — strong athletic ceiling-0.551
318.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.323