Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Cole McDonald
Cole McDonald

Player breakdown

Cole McDonald

Hawaii · 2020 Draft Class

6-3215 lbs7th round, 224th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
EliteMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

81%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017Hawai'iMountain West259221013812
2018Hawai'iMountain West122754643,790358370439
2019Hawai'iMountain West122984653,6422914393635

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

81%

ML model output

Context Prob

81%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.92 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
Strong ascending production slope (+1810 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
7,454 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+171.3) — getting better faster each year-0.390
286.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.40s — good speed for frame-0.312

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)