Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Colin Kaepernick
Colin Kaepernick

Player breakdown

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada · 2011 Draft Class

6-5233 lbs2nd round, 36th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

36%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011SFO30353500-200
2012SFO1371362181,814103415515
2013SFO16162434163,197218524425
2014SFO16162894783,3691910639120
2015SFO981442441,6156525617
2016SFO12111963312,241164468218
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2007NevadaMountain West81202162,038193567625
2008NevadaMountain West121843362,4791951,1151635
2009NevadaMountain West111662822,0522061,1831636
2010NevadaMountain West132133262,8302071,1842040

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

36%

ML model output

Context Prob

36%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 1.00 — elite athletic ceiling+0.359
Improvement accelerating (+0.4) — getting better faster each year+0.351
4.18s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269

Top Negative Factors

4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.338
213.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.322
4 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)