Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Colt Brennan
Colt Brennan

Player breakdown

Colt Brennan

Hawaii · 2008 Draft Class

6-2207 lbs6th round, 186th overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~43
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

43%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2005Hawai'iMountain West123505154,3013513154237
2006Hawai'iMountain West113735174,9905311351558
2007Hawai'iMountain West83374724,174381465846

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

43%

ML model output

Context Prob

43%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.345
13,465 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Best-season yards rank: top 0% in class — class-best peak output+0.200

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.84 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
434.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)