Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Colt McCoy
Colt McCoy

Player breakdown

Colt McCoy

Texas · 2010 Draft Class

6-1216 lbs3rd round, 85th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~40
EliteDavey O'Brien x1Manning x1Unitas x1All-American x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

78%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2010CLE881352221,5766913617
2011CLE13132654632,7331411212014
2012CLE3091779101501
2013SFO40111300-600
2014WAS54911281,057436615
2015WAS2071112810-301
2018WAS323454372336303
2019WAS111827122011400
2020NYG424066375111201
2021ARI837499740313703
2022ARI4390132780133601
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006TexasSEC111912782,262277167229
2007TexasSEC112553933,1292118408324
2008TexasSEC122913753,4453275761042
2009TexasSEC133324703,5212712348330

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

19%

ML model output

Context Prob

19%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

12,357 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Improvement accelerating (+0.6) — getting better faster each year+0.235
Best-season yards rank: top 25% in class — strong+0.200

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.86 — elite athletic ceiling-0.566
262.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.333

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)