Player breakdown
Dak Prescott
Mississippi St. · 2016 Draft Class
6-2226 lbs4th round, 135th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
High25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | DAL | 16 | 16 | 311 | 459 | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 282 | 6 | 29 |
| 2017 | DAL | 16 | 16 | 308 | 490 | 3,324 | 22 | 13 | 357 | 6 | 28 |
| 2018 | DAL | 16 | 16 | 356 | 526 | 3,885 | 22 | 8 | 305 | 6 | 28 |
| 2019 | DAL | 16 | 16 | 388 | 596 | 4,902 | 30 | 11 | 277 | 3 | 33 |
| 2020 | DAL | 5 | 5 | 151 | 222 | 1,856 | 9 | 4 | 93 | 3 | 12 |
| 2021 | DAL | 16 | 16 | 410 | 596 | 4,449 | 37 | 10 | 146 | 1 | 38 |
| 2022 | DAL | 12 | 12 | 261 | 394 | 2,860 | 23 | 15 | 182 | 1 | 24 |
| 2023 | DAL | 17 | 17 | 410 | 590 | 4,516 | 36 | 9 | 242 | 2 | 38 |
| 2024 | DAL | 8 | 8 | 185 | 286 | 1,978 | 11 | 8 | 54 | 1 | 12 |
| 2025 | DAL | 17 | 17 | 404 | 600 | 4,552 | 30 | 10 | 177 | 2 | 32 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Mississippi State | SEC | 8 | 18 | 29 | 194 | 4 | 0 | 118 | 4 | 8 |
| 2013 | Mississippi State | SEC | 9 | 139 | 239 | 1,657 | 7 | 7 | 751 | 11 | 18 |
| 2014 | Mississippi State | SEC | 12 | 211 | 345 | 2,996 | 24 | 10 | 939 | 13 | 37 |
| 2015 | Mississippi State | SEC | 0 | 291 | 435 | 3,413 | 25 | 4 | 541 | 10 | 35 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
58%
ML model output
Context Prob
58%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.402
Strong ascending production slope (+1073 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
4.32s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+16.6) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.347
284.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343