Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Dan LeFevour
Dan LeFevour

Player breakdown

Dan LeFevour

Central Michigan · 2010 Draft Class

6-3230 lbs6th round, 181st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

34%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006Central MichiganMid-American122313622,8692510452631
2007Central MichiganMid-American133385093,36023131,0081740
2008Central MichiganMid-American102233362,531195536625
2009Central MichiganMid-American123184563,4382877131543

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

34%

ML model output

Context Prob

34%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.96 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.344
4.22s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269

Top Negative Factors

259.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.346
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.327
4 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)