Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Dan Orlovsky
Dan Orlovsky

Player breakdown

Dan Orlovsky

Connecticut · 2005 Draft Class

6-5225 lbs5th round, 145th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

31%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2005DET207176300000
2008DET1071432551,616882908
2011IND851221931,20164506
2012TAM10475100000
2015DET20224020111001
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003ConnecticutFBS Independents61432421,69415234015
2004ConnecticutFBS Independents82684163,11521140021

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

31%

ML model output

Context Prob

31%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1421 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
4.39s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
4,809 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.559
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.338
343.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)