Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones

Player breakdown

Daniel Jones

Duke · 2019 Draft Class

6-5221 lbs1st round, 6th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
Low25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

34%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019NYG13122844593,0272412279226
2020NYG14142804482,9431110423112
2021NYG11112323612,428107298212
2022NYG16163174723,205155708722
2023NYG661081609092620613
2024NYG10102163412,07087265210
2025IND13132613843,101198164524
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2016DukeACC112704302,836169486723
2017DukeACC82304132,4391211432618
2018DukeACC82073512,251177325219

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

34%

ML model output

Context Prob

34%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.443
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.344
4.41s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

278.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319
Height-adjusted speed: 4.50s — below average speed for frame-0.290

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)