Player breakdown
Davis Mills
Stanford · 2021 Draft Class
6-3217 lbs3rd round, 67th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
12%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | HOU | 13 | 11 | 263 | 394 | 2,664 | 16 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 16 |
| 2022 | HOU | 15 | 15 | 292 | 479 | 3,118 | 17 | 15 | 108 | 2 | 19 |
| 2023 | HOU | 6 | 0 | 18 | 39 | 173 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 2 |
| 2024 | HOU | 4 | 0 | 20 | 36 | 212 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | HOU | 6 | 3 | 91 | 159 | 915 | 5 | 1 | 60 | 1 | 6 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Stanford | ACC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | Stanford | ACC | 6 | 158 | 241 | 1,960 | 11 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 11 |
| 2020 | Stanford | ACC | 5 | 129 | 195 | 1,508 | 7 | 3 | 37 | 3 | 10 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
12%
ML model output
Context Prob
12%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.344
4.40s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
3,468 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.546
315.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.318
Height-adjusted speed: 4.63s — below average speed for frame-0.295