Player breakdown
Derek Carr
Fresno St. · 2014 Draft Class
6-2214 lbs2nd round, 36th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
High25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
66%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | OAK | 16 | 16 | 348 | 599 | 3,270 | 21 | 12 | 92 | 0 | 21 |
| 2015 | OAK | 16 | 16 | 350 | 573 | 3,987 | 32 | 13 | 138 | 0 | 32 |
| 2016 | OAK | 15 | 15 | 357 | 560 | 3,937 | 28 | 6 | 70 | 0 | 28 |
| 2017 | OAK | 15 | 15 | 323 | 515 | 3,496 | 22 | 13 | 66 | 0 | 22 |
| 2018 | OAK | 16 | 16 | 381 | 553 | 4,049 | 19 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 20 |
| 2019 | OAK | 16 | 16 | 361 | 513 | 4,054 | 21 | 8 | 82 | 2 | 23 |
| 2020 | LVR | 16 | 16 | 348 | 517 | 4,103 | 27 | 9 | 140 | 3 | 30 |
| 2021 | LVR | 17 | 17 | 428 | 626 | 4,804 | 23 | 14 | 108 | 0 | 23 |
| 2022 | LVR | 15 | 15 | 305 | 502 | 3,522 | 24 | 14 | 102 | 0 | 24 |
| 2023 | NOR | 17 | 17 | 375 | 548 | 3,878 | 25 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 25 |
| 2024 | NOR | 10 | 10 | 189 | 279 | 2,145 | 15 | 5 | 71 | 1 | 16 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 0 | 10 | 14 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2011 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 12 | 279 | 446 | 3,544 | 26 | 9 | 72 | 3 | 29 |
| 2012 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 12 | 344 | 511 | 4,104 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 37 |
| 2013 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 12 | 424 | 605 | 4,866 | 48 | 7 | 117 | 2 | 50 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
66%
ML model output
Context Prob
66%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1584 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.291
4.20s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+42.5) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.353
350.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345