Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson

Player breakdown

Deshaun Watson

Clemson · 2017 Draft Class

6-2221 lbs1st round, 12th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~30
EliteDavey O'Brien x2Manning x2Unitas x1All-American x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 6Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

88%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017HOU761262041,699198269221
2018HOU16163455054,165269551531
2019HOU15153334953,8522612413733
2020HOU16163825444,823337444336
2022CLE66991701,1027517518
2023CLE661051711,1157414218
2024CLE771372161,1485314816
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2014ClemsonACC6931371,466142200519
2015ClemsonACC02874133,51230118871141
2016ClemsonACC133294873,9143715529643

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

88%

ML model output

Context Prob

88%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.91 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
Strong ascending production slope (+1224 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4.31s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+1.7) — getting better faster each year-0.390
468.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.53s — below average speed for frame-0.307

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)