Player breakdown
Deshaun Watson
Clemson · 2017 Draft Class
6-2221 lbs1st round, 12th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~30
EliteDavey O'Brien x2Manning x2Unitas x1All-American x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 6Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
88%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | HOU | 7 | 6 | 126 | 204 | 1,699 | 19 | 8 | 269 | 2 | 21 |
| 2018 | HOU | 16 | 16 | 345 | 505 | 4,165 | 26 | 9 | 551 | 5 | 31 |
| 2019 | HOU | 15 | 15 | 333 | 495 | 3,852 | 26 | 12 | 413 | 7 | 33 |
| 2020 | HOU | 16 | 16 | 382 | 544 | 4,823 | 33 | 7 | 444 | 3 | 36 |
| 2022 | CLE | 6 | 6 | 99 | 170 | 1,102 | 7 | 5 | 175 | 1 | 8 |
| 2023 | CLE | 6 | 6 | 105 | 171 | 1,115 | 7 | 4 | 142 | 1 | 8 |
| 2024 | CLE | 7 | 7 | 137 | 216 | 1,148 | 5 | 3 | 148 | 1 | 6 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Clemson | ACC | 6 | 93 | 137 | 1,466 | 14 | 2 | 200 | 5 | 19 |
| 2015 | Clemson | ACC | 0 | 287 | 413 | 3,512 | 30 | 11 | 887 | 11 | 41 |
| 2016 | Clemson | ACC | 13 | 329 | 487 | 3,914 | 37 | 15 | 529 | 6 | 43 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
88%
ML model output
Context Prob
88%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.91 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
Strong ascending production slope (+1224 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4.31s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+1.7) — getting better faster each year-0.390
468.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.53s — below average speed for frame-0.307