Predicting the Pros
Predictions/DeShone Kizer
DeShone Kizer

Player breakdown

DeShone Kizer

Notre Dame · 2017 Draft Class

6-4233 lbs2nd round, 52nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~30
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

41%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017CLE15152554762,8941122419516
2018GNB302042187023900
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2015Notre DameFBS Independents01892982,600199499928
2016Notre DameFBS Independents112123612,925269472834

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

41%

ML model output

Context Prob

41%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.91 — elite athletic ceiling+0.361
Improvement accelerating (+0.1) — getting better faster each year+0.351
4.53s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

502.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341
Height-adjusted speed: 4.58s — below average speed for frame-0.297
Best-season yards rank: top 60% in class — average-0.286

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)