Player breakdown
Desmond Ridder
Cincinnati · 2022 Draft Class
6-3211 lbs3rd round, 74th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x2Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
68%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ATL | 4 | 4 | 73 | 115 | 708 | 2 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 2 |
| 2023 | ATL | 15 | 13 | 249 | 388 | 2,836 | 12 | 12 | 193 | 5 | 17 |
| 2024 | LVR | 6 | 1 | 52 | 85 | 458 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 2 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 9 | 190 | 304 | 2,359 | 19 | 5 | 563 | 5 | 24 |
| 2019 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 9 | 165 | 301 | 2,069 | 17 | 9 | 545 | 2 | 19 |
| 2020 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 9 | 186 | 281 | 2,296 | 19 | 6 | 592 | 12 | 31 |
| 2021 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 13 | 234 | 355 | 3,190 | 30 | 8 | 361 | 6 | 36 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
31%
ML model output
Context Prob
31%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.93 — elite athletic ceiling+0.365
Improvement accelerating (+0.3) — getting better faster each year+0.351
4.29s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
Top Negative Factors
247.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.333
4 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319