Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Devin Leary
Devin Leary

Player breakdown

Devin Leary

Kentucky · 2024 Draft Class

6-1215 lbs6th round, 218th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~26
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

41%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019NC StateACC51012101,219854608
2020NC StateACC46611089082708
2021NC StateACC122834313,4333550035
2022NC StateACC01181931,2651141314
2023KentuckySEC131933432,44023100023

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

41%

ML model output

Context Prob

41%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.278
2,440 career receiving yards — strong volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+1.8) — getting better faster each year-0.397
187.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.330

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)