Player breakdown
Drake Maye
North Carolina · 2024 Draft Class
6-4223 lbs1st round, 3rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~24
EliteAll-Conference x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
79%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NWE | 13 | 12 | 225 | 338 | 2,276 | 15 | 10 | 421 | 2 | 17 |
| 2025 | NWE | 17 | 17 | 354 | 492 | 4,394 | 31 | 8 | 450 | 4 | 35 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | North Carolina | ACC | 1 | 7 | 9 | 89 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 1 |
| 2022 | North Carolina | ACC | 0 | 324 | 482 | 4,115 | 35 | 7 | 653 | 7 | 42 |
| 2023 | North Carolina | ACC | 12 | 269 | 425 | 3,608 | 24 | 9 | 449 | 9 | 33 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
76%
ML model output
Context Prob
76%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1759 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
7,812 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.260
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.61 — strong athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+45.2) — getting better faster each year-0.390
600.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345